Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Playoff Cutoff - What Its Gonna Take!

With today's announcement of the trade deadline set for after Day 48, I thought it warranted a glance at another upcoming threshold, that being the playoff cutoff line.

Based on the past four seasons, there has been a rough ride in terms of how many points it takes to qualify for that all-important eighth slot in each conference. At times, its been as low as the early-50's, but we've also seen teams needing to get into the mid-60's to enter the post-season chase. For instance, the teams that didn't qualify in RHL16, would have easily made it with their respective point totals in RHL17.


The Howe Conference has based on the available data since RHL16, required a slightly stronger performance, averaging out to 61 points (conversely, the Richard Conference netted out at 57 points).

Looking at the teams who just failed short in the 9th spot the past few seasons, the race has been close at times, with just a single point or win separating them from the playoff round.

Extrapolating to where the 8th place teams are sitting now in RHL20, we can see that the ROA and the OLY are facing much different thresholds. So far, the Richard Conference has seen a lower standard of play with two sub .500 clubs currently in the top eight. No such luck over in the Howe.


Based on their current performance, the ROA need to coast in with just 47 points. That would be the lowest point level required since the RHL returned to the two even-level conference system. Meanwhile, the OLY would need a whopping 68 points (which could mean winning half of their total games) just to face the top ranked club in round one. Again, that would be the highest point total needed for a playoff spot since RHL16.